Manifesto for Global Demilitarization
Manifesto for Global Demilitarization and Peaceful Development
According to the Global Peace Index, the number of deaths caused by armed conflict increased more than six fold between 2008 and 2026. Even under the most optimistic scenario – which can hardly be considered realistic anymore, as it does not take into account the large-scale militarization of states that has already become a global reality – humanity would suffer up to 500,000 direct combat deaths every year. By 2050, the cumulative excess loss of human life – including deaths caused by armed conflict, hunger, shortages of drinking water, climate-related conditions, air pollution, and the collapse of healthcare systems – could reach between 80 and 250 million people. A significant share of these losses would result from the chronic underfunding of essential public programs caused by the diversion of financial resources toward military rearmament and the prosecution of armed conflicts.
The worst-case scenario envisions a full-scale nuclear exchange between the United States/NATO and Russia involving more than 4,400 strategic nuclear warheads. Given current geopolitical trends, this scenario is presented as the most probable. Direct strikes on major metropolitan areas and strategic launch facilities would result in the immediate deaths of approximately 360 million people. In the years that followed, an estimated additional five billion people could die as a consequence of nuclear winter and the collapse of the global food supply. Under this scenario, the total human losses resulting from the ongoing global arms race – into which most of the world's major powers have now entered – would reach approximately 5.4 billion people, or more than 55% of the Earth's population. Human civilization as we know it today would cease to exist, regressing to a pre-industrial struggle for survival.
What kind of future did we imagine for our planet just 40–50 years ago? We envisioned cybernetic immortality through the fusion of humans and AI-driven machines, revolutionary advances in medicine, the exploration of deep space and the inevitable colonization of Mars, a transition from an economy of ownership to an economy of access, freedom of speech, freedom of thought, limitless opportunities for creativity and self-realization, renewable sources of energy, and a planet that would quite literally come back to life after the end of the hydrocarbon era.
Humanity has indeed made remarkable technological progress over the past decades. Yet instead of a true symbiosis between humans and machines, we have witnessed the rise of pervasive surveillance carried out through digital devices and everyday technology, censorship reaching into virtually every aspect of public and private life, the constant rewriting of history to serve the interests of ruling elites, the expansion of sophisticated systems of repression aimed at suppressing dissent, and a permanent state of war increasingly used as a means of preserving political power.
Humanity has become deeply entangled in armed conflicts that erupt with increasing frequency, often with little or no apparent justification. Even those who aspire to be remembered as peacemakers are frequently engaged in resolving wars in which they themselves played a role in creating or escalating.
The defining global trends of our time are rising geopolitical tensions, steadily increasing military expenditures, and accelerating climate change driven in part by the chronic underfunding of environmental programs and sustainability initiatives. It has become increasingly evident that, contrary to previous plans and forecasts, the world has entered a prolonged era of military rearmament. As a result, the gap between the objectives of sustainable development under the Agenda 2030 framework and the actual priorities of governments will continue to widen. Countries will keep expanding their defense budgets, meaning that financial resources which could otherwise be invested in social welfare, infrastructure, healthcare, education, or poverty reduction will instead be directed toward the procurement of military equipment, the production of ammunition, and the modernization of military bases. We may have to set aside our dreams of colonizing Mars and stop expecting revolutionary breakthroughs in science and medicine. Instead, technological progress will increasingly be concentrated in those fields considered essential for the conduct of war.
In countries located on the front line of emerging geopolitical fault lines – including Finland, the Baltic states, and Eastern Europe – the cost of living, housing, and essential services is expected to continue rising. Inflation will be driven not only by disrupted supply chains but also by the growing financial burden of maintaining an expanding military infrastructure. At the same time, the pressure placed on public budgets by refugees fleeing the consequences of ongoing armed conflicts and seeking safety in the more stable parts of Europe is likely to contribute to cuts in a range of public programs that were originally intended to improve the quality of life and long-term well-being of the native populations of European countries. Taken together with the deteriorating living conditions in equatorial and drought-prone regions, these developments are expected to intensify migratory pressure on northern countries. In turn, this may contribute to the growth of right-wing political movements and lead to stricter border control policies across Europe and the United States.
Against the backdrop of rising poverty, growing food insecurity, shortages of safe drinking water, an escalating migration crisis and the social tensions it creates, together with the persistence of armed conflicts around the world, the global population is expected to continue declining, while life for a large share of humanity increasingly becomes a struggle for survival.
Do we still have the opportunity to reverse these trends and write an alternative future – one that avoids the negative scenario toward which we are increasingly being led by political leaders who appear to believe that they alone have the authority to determine the destiny of humanity?
It is time to remember that the people are the sole source of governmental authority and the true bearers of sovereignty. This principle is enshrined in the constitutions of the vast majority of countries around the world. Yet why have the very people to whom we delegated the responsibility of governing our states excluded us from participating in the fundamental decisions that shape our future? Without seeking our consent or taking our views into account, governments place national economies on a wartime footing, plan conflicts – often claiming they do so in the name of peace and democracy – wage wars financed by our taxes, and contribute to refugee flows. Those fleeing the consequences of these conflicts often seek safety in our cities, where the challenges of integration can contribute to social tensions when cultural differences and expectations remain unresolved. These developments raise a fundamental question: should decisions with such profound and long-lasting consequences for society be made without the meaningful participation of the people in whose name they are taken?
In light of the foregoing, and relying on the principles of international law, we – the citizens of different states who collectively constitute the sole source of governmental authority on this planet and the bearers of sovereignty – address those who have concentrated executive and legislative power in their hands, and who, too often, exercise that power not for the common good but to the detriment of society. We therefore call for the strict implementation of the following principles, formulated on the basis of our shared interests as citizens and our common determination to prevent a large-scale catastrophe that could, in the near future, become unavoidable:
1. An Absolute Prohibition on Conducting Military Operations Outside National Territory
We demand that the complete renunciation of the use of national armed forces beyond national borders be enshrined in national constitutions and international law. Any form of unilateral "preemptive strikes," military intervention, or regime-change operations must be unequivocally criminalized as acts of aggression against humanity. Defense must be strictly territorial in nature.
2. The United Nations' Exclusive Monopoly on Peacekeeping
We demand that the United Nations be restored to its original historic role. United Nations peacekeeping forces must be recognized as the world's only military formations vested with the legitimate authority to intervene in local conflicts on the territory of foreign states. The use of force to prevent genocide or humanitarian catastrophes must be carried out exclusively under a mandate from the international community, free from any national geopolitical interests. It is necessary to transition from the passive concept of "peacekeeping" to the active function of "peace enforcement." United Nations forces must be granted both the mandate and the heavy military equipment necessary to physically separate warring parties and protect civilian populations, regardless of the aggressor's consent. We also demand the development and rapid implementation of a mechanism for the automatic suspension of veto rights for any party to a conflict if the United Nations General Assembly classifies the situation as an act of aggression or genocide.
3. Exclusive Authority over Economic Sanctions
We call for limiting the ability of individual states to impose unilateral economic sanctions as a means of political and economic pressure. Such measures often have their greatest impact on civilian populations while also disrupting the global economy. The authority to impose sanctions should be returned exclusively to the United Nations, where they should serve as an instrument of collective international action used solely to halt aggression, rather than as a tool of geopolitical competition.
4. The Elimination of Offensive Weapons Systems
States must adopt the doctrine of "non-provocative defense." We demand the signing of international conventions prohibiting the development, production, and deployment of weapons systems designed for breaching defensive lines and projecting military power, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, aircraft carrier strike groups, heavy armored assault formations, and space-based weapons systems. As part of the implementation of this concept, the United Nations must be designated as the global inspection authority. The United Nations must be granted a mandate to conduct unannounced inspections of the military-industrial complexes of states in order to verify compliance with treaties prohibiting offensive weapons.
5. The Gradual Conversion of the Military-Industrial Complex
We demand the adoption of national programs for the systematic transition of economies from military production to civilian manufacturing. The capabilities of the military-industrial complex – including advanced technologies, industrial facilities, engineering expertise, and scientific talent – must be redirected toward addressing global challenges: manufacturing equipment for renewable energy, advancing peaceful space programs, developing medical technologies, and building civilian infrastructure.
6. A Radical Reduction in Military Expenditure
States should commit themselves to the gradual reduction of defense spending through the establishment of binding international limits. The economy of war must give way to an economy of creation.
Defense expenditures should be reduced according to the following schedule:
By 2030: no more than 1% of GDP
By 2035: no more than 0.5% of GDP
By 2040: no more than 0.2% of GDP
7. The Fair Redistribution of the Peace Dividend
Funds released as a result of reductions in military budgets must be protected by law against misuse or diversion for purposes other than those intended. We demand the establishment of transparent mechanisms to redirect these funds toward the following priorities:
Global Climate and the Environment: restoring ecosystems, cleaning the oceans, and combating climate change.
Social Development: eradicating poverty and hunger, and ensuring unconditional access to clean drinking water.
Human Capital: providing free, high-quality education and advanced healthcare for all segments of the population.
Workforce Retraining: establishing dedicated funds for the retraining of military personnel and employees of the military-industrial complex, with guaranteed employment in the civilian sector.
8. Eliminating the Root Causes of Forced Migration and Upholding the Right to One's Homeland
Militarism, armed interventions, and economic exploitation are the primary drivers of mass refugee displacement. We demand that the international community focus its efforts not on combating migrants, but on eliminating the root causes of migration: ending wars and assisting in the reconstruction of devastated economies. We proclaim the inalienable right of indigenous peoples to live, develop, and prosper within the boundaries of their natural historical homelands, free from the threat of displacement caused by geopolitical factors, while preserving the right of titular nations to determine the cultural and traditional framework that shall serve as the fundamental and dominant foundation within the territories in which the nation resides, provided that the principles of religious and ethnic tolerance are upheld toward representatives of historically established minority ethnic groups and other nations that have long resided within those same territories.
9. Protecting Cultural Sovereignty and Social Stability
State resources freed from the arms race must be redirected toward ensuring genuine internal security. We demand a strengthened and uncompromising fight against transnational crime, human trafficking, and drug trafficking, all of which flourish in conditions of regional conflict. At the same time, the foundation of this new social paradigm must be the protection of the rights of indigenous peoples, the careful preservation of their unique traditions and culture, and the active promotion of interethnic and interfaith tolerance as the cornerstone of peaceful coexistence.
We call upon the leaders of all nations to convene an emergency Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly to adopt a resolution launching a global process of demilitarization in accordance with the principles set forth in this Manifesto.
A world without war is not a utopian dream. It is the only pragmatic path to the survival of humanity.